MOSCOW, June 11. /TASS/. Ukraine's actions do not demonstrate a sincere commitment to peace or genuine negotiations; NATO and Western elites may benefit from extending the Russia-Ukraine conflict to justify military spending and avoid concessions; Iran accuses the IAEA of leaking classified nuclear data to Israel. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Russian Foreign Ministry sees no real intent for peace in Ukraine
Ukraine’s actions do not reflect a real desire for peace or for conducting genuine negotiations, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. In particular, Kiev continues to carry out sabotage operations on Russian territory. Moreover, the agreements reached in Istanbul are not being fully implemented. For several days now, trailers carrying the frozen bodies of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers have been waiting at the border — Kiev is in no hurry to collect them. At the same time, two prisoner exchanges have successfully taken place, with Belarus serving as mediator.
"What kind of willingness for dialogue can there be if all efforts are being made to avoid a substantive conversation and create obstacles?" Grushko told the newspaper. "There’s no other way to characterize the terrorist attacks that were carried out two days before the start of negotiations. On top of that, the actions of the Kiev regime in the international arena — their endless demands that the West provide ever-increasing military support and ever more long-range advanced weapons — obviously do not reflect a real commitment to peace or honest dialogue," he added.
On June 10, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed the Ukrainian crisis with his Belarusian counterpart, Maksim Ryzhenkov. Minsk could once again serve as a potential platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Although no date has been set for the next round of talks, experts believe that, despite provocations from Kiev, it will ultimately happen.
Minsk would be the ideal venue for continuing the dialogue process, Deputy Chairman of the Belarusian Parliament’s International Affairs Commission Oleg Gaidukevich told Izvestia, noting that no other countries are as deeply invested in ending the conflict as Russia and Belarus. According to the lawmaker, Ukraine’s political leadership will base its decision on whether to accept the proposal to resume negotiations in Minsk largely on instructions from London and Brussels.
On June 10, Vladimir Zelensky stated that his delegation is not authorized to discuss matters of sovereignty and territorial integrity during the negotiations. According to him, the negotiators may only address humanitarian issues. For now, Kiev has proposed that the next meeting be held sometime between June 20 and June 30.
"If the Ukrainian side were able to make such a decision independently, it would abandon these negotiations altogether," political analyst Aleksandr Asafov told Izvestia. The expert believes that, despite recent developments, the next round of talks will happen. "The timeline, of course, remains uncertain. As for the venue, there is a high probability that it could once again be Turkey. However, given the collapse of previous agreements, certain delays should be expected," he added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US intelligence continues aiding Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russia
In the early hours of Tuesday, Kiev launched over 100 long-range drones at targets across Russia, resulting in the suspension of flights at 13 Russian airports. In response, Moscow carried out one of its most intense strikes against the Ukrainian capital, as well as against the Odessa, Chernigov, and Dnepropetrovsk regions. Meanwhile, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, continued hostilities between Moscow and Kiev serve the alliance’s interests. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta argue that NATO and European elites are strategically invested in extending the Russia-Ukraine conflict to justify increased military spending, gain combat experience, and avoid making political concessions to Russia, despite Moscow not posing a direct threat to the alliance.
Media outlets quoted Rutte as saying that a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine poses risks for NATO, as it would allow Russia to replenish its stockpiles of weapons - something that could become a threat to the alliance. According to the Secretary General, these weapons may currently be used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but if the fighting stops, one cannot rule out that Russia would be ready to deploy such force, against NATO within five years. Thus, NATO is interested in seeing Russia exhaust its substantial military resources in the combat zone of the special military operation.
"Russia poses no threat to either NATO or Europe. But it benefits European countries to sustain the fighting and portray Russia as an enemy - this is the only way they can justify increasing military spending to 5% of GDP, as demanded by the Americans," retired colonel and military expert Nikolay Shulgin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
"Russia has shown no intention of attacking NATO, although European elites have constructed an image of Russia as an existential threat to Europe. The alternative to this defense spending would be to fundamentally revise their policy toward Russia - namely, to build relations based on authentic mutual respect. In other words, to make concessions. This scenario is highly undesirable for the current political elites of many EU countries for both ideological and historical reasons," former Verkhovna Rada deputy and political analyst Oleg Tsaryov told the newspaper.
On the other hand, according to Nikolay Shulgin, the ongoing hostilities between Moscow and Kiev offer NATO an opportunity to gain combat experience and test new tactics of warfare, the newspaper writes.
Vedomosti: Iran accuses IAEA of passing sensitive nuclear info to Israel
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has allegedly passed confidential communications between Iran and the agency, containing "sensitive information", to Israeli intelligence through secret channels, according to reports from Fars News Agency and Iran Press News Agency citing Iranian intelligence officials. According to the sources, the IAEA also reportedly disclosed the identities of Iranian nuclear scientists who were later targeted and killed. Fars News reported on June 10 that Iran’s Foreign Ministry intends to take "firm diplomatic steps in response to these serious violations" in the near future. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe Iran is using the accusations against the IAEA to undermine Israel and push for its exclusion from nuclear negotiations, though the claims are unlikely to significantly impact the upcoming US-Iran talks.
These allegations emerge ahead of the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, scheduled for June 15 in Oman. During the previous round, held on May 23 in Rome, the US proposed to create a regional consortium to oversee the production of low-enriched uranium, on the condition that Tehran temporarily reduce its uranium enrichment level to 3%.
The IAEA has repeatedly set precedents that have undermined the Islamic Republic’s trust in the agency, President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Murad Sadeghzadeh told Vedomosti. "I have repeatedly noted the pro-Western bias of this organization. IAEA personnel clearly include members of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. Similarly, during Saddam Hussein’s era, IAEA inspectors passed information to Israel about Iraqi nuclear facilities, which were later destroyed by the Israeli Air Force," the expert added.
In this case, Iran is not so much in conflict with the IAEA as it is with Israel, argued Ilya Vaskin, Junior Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia Studies at the Higher School of Economics. In his view, Tehran is using the agency as a tool to pressure the Jewish state by undermining its reputation in European and US political circles. According to Vaskin, Iran’s actions are aimed at excluding Israel from any involvement in nuclear negotiations, although the IAEA is expected to continue inspecting Iranian nuclear facilities.
Murad Sadeghzadeh believes that the Iranian media reports about the alleged leak of Iran’s correspondence with IAEA officials to Israel are unlikely to have a substantial impact on the upcoming US-Iran talks. The main focus of the meeting, he emphasized, will be on discussing ways to ease conflicts in the Middle East. He also suggested that a potential nuclear deal could be reached without the IAEA’s involvement through the participation of independent observers from Russia and other non-aligned states.
Kommersant: World Bank cuts global growth outlook amid rising trade tensions, policy doubts
The World Bank, following the lead of other international organizations, has cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 2.3%, down from the previously projected 2.7%. The escalation of trade disputes, coupled with heightened uncertainty, has prompted a sweeping reassessment of the Bank’s outlook, with forecasts revised downward for 70% of national economies, Kommersant writes. Among those affected are the United States and many of its key partners, including the Eurozone, Japan, and Mexico. China is the notable exception, with its forecast remaining unchanged.
While a global recession is not anticipated, the World Bank warns that if the current projection materializes, the average rate of global economic expansion over the 2020s will be the weakest for any comparable decade since the 1960s. Analysts identify the primary driver behind this sluggish growth as the tariff war initiated under US President Donald Trump. Trade disputes and supply chain disruptions have sharply slowed global trade, which is expected to grow by only 1.8% this year, down from 3.4% in 2024. The 2025 trade growth outlook has been markedly cut from the earlier estimate of 2.5%.
The United States is among the economies facing downgraded prospects. Following GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024, the US economy is now projected to expand by just 1.4% in 2025 (down from 2.3% forecast in January) and by 1.6% in 2026 (previously 2%). The World Bank has also revised downward the outlook for most of America’s trading partners. The Eurozone economy, for example, is now expected to grow by only 0.7% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026 (compared to 0.9% growth in 2024), despite the European Central Bank’s looser monetary policy.
As with other global institutions, the World Bank expects China’s economy to remain the most resilient. Despite ongoing US tariffs, China’s GDP is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
Russia, which is not directly impacted by the trade war, has nonetheless seen its 2025 GDP forecast lowered by the World Bank due to stricter monetary policy. The Bank now expects Russian economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 (down from 1.6% in January), following a strong 4.3% expansion in 2024. Last year’s growth surge was attributed to sustained activity in the manufacturing sector, particularly in defense-related and import-substitution industries. In 2026, Russia’s GDP is forecast to grow by 1.2%, a slight upward revision from the January estimate of 1.1%.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Iranian oil could disrupt OPEC+ dynamics if sanctions are lifted after US talks
Another round of negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the nuclear deal is scheduled for June 15. One of Tehran’s key conditions is the lifting of sanctions on its oil exports. Should the talks succeed, Iranian oil could emerge as a disruptive force for the already fragile OPEC+ agreement and may displace Russian crude in several markets.
According to experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta, if US-Iran negotiations lead to the lifting of sanctions, Iran’s oil exports could expand sharply, potentially destabilizing the OPEC+ agreement, intensifying competition, especially with Russia, and pushing global oil prices down.
According to Maksim Malkov, Head of Oil and Gas Services at Kept, Iran produced 4.1-4.7 mln barrels of oil per day in the 2016-2018 period prior to the imposition of US sanctions, which represents the highest levels of production in the past 25 years. In theory, Iranian oil producers could rapidly return to comparable volumes if all barriers are lifted.
At present, Iran is producing approximately 3.3-3.6 mln barrels per day and exporting 1.5-2 mln barrels per day. This implies a potential increase in production of at least 1 mln barrels per day, though such a rapid rise is unlikely to be achieved in the short term.
Boris Kopeykin, Chief Economist at the Stolypin Institute for Economic Growth, told the newspaper that estimates of Iran’s potential production and export increase vary widely, from 200,000-300,000 barrels per day to as much as 1 mln barrels per day. The most plausible forecast, however, appears to be an increase of 300,000-400,000 barrels over a 6-12-month period.
Even without this additional growth in production, a return to Iran’s pre-sanction export level of 2.5 mln barrels per day would have significant repercussions. Currently, Russia exports 3.5 mln barrels of oil per day, and like Iran, is selling its crude at a discount due to sanctions. The addition of another 1 mln barrels per day to the global market is unlikely to benefit other oil-exporting countries, including Russia and other OPEC+ members, the newspaper noted.
Before the imposition of sanctions, Iran supplied oil to Southern Europe, Turkey, and India. If sanctions are lifted, Iranian oil is likely to reclaim these markets. In Turkey and India, Iran’s Iran Light crude, similar in quality to Russia’s Urals blend, would likely outcompete Russian oil. In Europe, Iranian oil could replace supplies from other Middle Eastern producers, primarily Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
A full-scale price war is unlikely, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, as OPEC+ members vividly recall the consequences of the agreement’s collapse in 2020. Nonetheless, a fierce battle for market share could ensue.
That said, according to financier and investment strategist Evgeny Kogan, the likelihood of a US-Iran deal remains low.
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